Economics and Law Journal

Primary Language
: TR
  • Hasan Önder SARIDOĞAN
Sectoral Analysis of the Informal Economy: A Case Study in Turkey

ABSTRACT

Purpose: Informal economy can be defined as notregistering economic activities in official national income accounts orregistering them incompletely. Turkey’s informal economy accountsfor around 25% of national income. In other words, one quarter ofTurkey’s economic activity is not included in the statistics. In thiscontext, it is important to determine the causes of informal activities,one of the major problems of Turkey’s economy.Methodology: In this study, the impact of the distribution of theagricultural, industrial, manufacturing and services sector in Turkeyon the informal economy was studied. This research aims to examinethe empirical cointegration, long and short run dynamics betweenmain sectors and informal economy in Turkey over the period of1990–2018. For this purpose, the stagnation of variables wasexamined by using the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and PhillipsPerron (PP) unit root tests. Once the variables were determined to bestationary at the level and at the first difference, the cointegrationrelationship in the series was tested with the AutoregressiveDistributed Lag (ARDL) bounds test. The analysis finds out thatthere is a cointegration in the variables. The short run and long runrelationships between variables are identified by Error CorrectionModel (ECM) and the ARDL cointegration test respectively.Findings: The results of the analysis show that as the share ofagriculture in GDP increases by 1%, the informal economy increasesby 0.79%. In addition, as the industrial sector’s share of GDPincreases by 1%, the informal economy decreases by 0.82% and asthe services sector’s share of GDP increases by 1%, the informaleconomy decreases by 1.12%. The empirical results indicate that theTurkish agricultural sector is increasing the informal economy. In thiscontext, possible solutions need to be developed with the necessarypolicy measures.Originality: A large number of studies on estimating the informaleconomy are found in the literature. However, no study has beenfound that investigates the impact of the development of basicsectors such as agriculture, industry and services within Turkey’sGNP on informality. In addition, the method used in the studydiffers from previous studies in terms of explanatory, control anddummy variables. According to the study’s findings, the informaleconomy increases in conjunction to the agriculture sector’s share ofTurkey’s GNP. This study’s findings can be used as a guide forimplementing appropriate policies, particularly in the agriculturesector.
Keywords : Informal Economy, Sectoral Analysis, ARDL, Cointegration Analyses

EXTENDED SUMMARY

The concept of informal economy has attracted the attention of scholars since the1970s and has been associated. Studies on the informal economy initiallyconcentrated on underdeveloped economies, known as Third World countries. Inthe 1980’s, studies on the nature and dynamics of informality in developing andindustrialized countries emerged. Although informal transactions have createdserious social, economic and political challenges around the world, many issues oftheir nature and consequences remain largely unresolved. Scientists have attemptedto explain the sources and causes of the informal economy through a variety ofopinionsThe concept of informal economy became a popular expression amongTurkish economists and politicians in the early 1990s. The solution to the incomedistribution and inflation problem depends on the formalization of theunregistered working population. The conceptual consistency could not be realizedin the studies conducted in Turkey during in this period. In estimation studies,what is measured has not been sufficiently explained and measurement methods,each of which has a different scope, are usually usedLooking at the last sixty years of Turkey, it is seen that the sectoraldistribution has changed sharply. According to World Bank data, while the shareof agriculture in GDP in Turkey was 54.9% in 1960, this rate decreased to 6.6% in2020. In the same period, the share of industry increased from 17.3% to 28.01%,the share of manufacturing sector increased from 12.7% to 19.1% and the share ofservices sector increased from 25.8% to 54.2%. It is observed that a transitionfrom the agricultural sector to other sectors took place in the said period. Thecourse of the size of the informal economy in Turkey shows parallelism with thecourse of the agricultural sectorThe main aim of the study is to investigate empirically the effects ofagriculture, industry, services and manufacturing on the informal economy inTurkey. For this purpose, using Turkey’s annual data for the period 1990-2018, theshort and long-term relationships between the variables were examined. Accordingto the empirical analysis results, as the share of industry and services sector inGDP increases, the informal economy decreases. On the other hand, with theincrease in the share of the agricultural sector in GDP, the informal economy isgrowing.Turkey is quite complex and has a structure consisting of the interaction ofmany variables. Therefore, in order to eliminate/reduce the informal economy,first of all, all the actors in the system must show their will. The public authoritymay implement all legal regulations on informality or aggravate the sanctions, but ifit does not receive the necessary support from the employees or employers, thesolution of the problem will become very difficult

Kayıtdışı Ekonominin Sektörel Analizi: Türkiye Örneği

ÖZ

Amaç: Kayıtdışı ekonomi ekonomik faaliyetlerin resmi ulusal gelir hesaplarına kaydedilmemesi veya eksik kaydedilmesi olarak tanımlanabilir. Türkiye’de kayıtdışı ekonominin büyüklüğü milli gelirin yaklaşık %25’ini oluşturmaktadır (Elgin vd., 2021). Bir başka deyişle Türkiye ekonomisindeki faaliyetlerin dörtte biri kayıt dışıdır. Bu bağlamda, Türk ekonomisinin en temel sorunlarından biri olan kayıtdışı faaliyetlerin nedenlerinin belirlenmesi önem arz etmektedir. Yöntem: Bu çalışmada, 1990-2018 dönemi yıllık verileri kullanılarak Türkiye’deki tarım, sanayi, imalat ve hizmetler sektörü dağılımının kayıtdışı ekonomi üzerindeki etkileri araştırılmıştır. Bu amaçla öncelikle Genişletilmiş Dickey Fuller ve Phillips-Perron birim kök testleri kullanılarak değişkenlerin durağanlıkları sınanmıştır. Değişkenlerin düzeyde ve birinci farklarında durağan olduğu tespit edildikten sonra Gecikmesi Dağıtılmış Otoregresif sınır testi ile değişkenlerdeki eşbütünleşme ilişkisi sınanmıştır. Değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisi tespit edildiğinden Gecikmesi Dağıtılmış Otoregresif modeli genel tahmin sonuçları ile uzun ve kısa dönem katsayıları belirlenmiştir. Bulgular: Analiz sonuçlarına göre, GSYH içinde tarımın payı %1 arttığında kayıtdışı ekonomi %0,79 artmaktadır. Buna karşın GSYH içinde sanayi sektörünün payı %1 arttıkça kayıtdışı ekonomi %0,82 ve hizmetler sektörünün payı %1 arttığında kayıtdışı ekonomi %1,12 azalmaktadır. Ampirik sonuçlar, Türkiye’de tarım sektörünün kayıtdışı ekonomiyi arttırdığını göstermektedir. Bu bağlamda gerekli politika önlemlerinin alınarak olası çözüm yollarının geliştirilmesi gerekmektedir. Özgünlük: Literatürde ağırlıklı olarak kayıtdışı ekonomiyi tahmin etme yönünde araştırmalar mevcuttur. Ancak tarım, sanayi, hizmetler gibi temel sektörlerin Türkiye GSMH’si içindeki gelişiminin kayıtdışılık üzerindeki etkisini araştıran çalışmaya rastlanılmamıştır. Ayrıca çalışmada kullanılan yöntem, açıklayıcı, kontrol ve kukla değişkenler bağlamında benzer çalışmalardan farklılaşmaktadır. Çalışmanın bulgularına göre, Türkiye’de GSMH içinde tarım sektörünün payı arttıkça kayıtdışı ekonomi artmaktadır. Çalışmanın bu sonucu tarım sektörü özelinde gerekli politikaların uygulanması yönünde yol gösterici olabilecektir
Anahtar Kelimeler : ÖZKayıtdışı Ekonomi, Sektörel Analiz, ARDL, Eşbütünleşme Analizi

Cite This Article

APA
SARIDOĞAN, H., & . ( 2024). Sectoral Analysis of the Informal Economy: A Case Study in Turkey. Çalışma ve Toplum, 3(82), 903-926. https://doi.org/10.54752/ct.1517548