ABSTRACT
As Türkiye commits to achieving net-zero emissions by 2053, the phase-out of fossil fuels necessitates a Just Transition framework to mitigate socio-economic risks for workers and coal-dependent regions like Zonguldak, Soma, and Afşin-Elbistan. This study combines a global review of Just Transition practices with empirical Input-Output (IO) analysis of Türkiye’s labor market to identify equitable pathways for workforce redeployment and policy design. The study draws on comparative case studies—including Germany’s Ruhr region, Spain’s coal transition, and Poland’s Upper Silesia—to extract transferable lessons on reskilling, regional diversification, and social protection. Using Türkiye’s 2018 IO tables, the analysis quantifies employment multipliers across 24 sectors, revealing that redirecting demand from coal to agriculture yields the highest job creation potential (135,617 new jobs per 8.93 billion TL shifted), followed by retail, health services, and education. Conversely, shifting demand to petroleum products risks net job losses.
Türkiye’s Just Transition requires targeted reskilling, linking fossil fuel workers to renewable energy and green manufacturing. Regional transition agencies should oversee diversification, leveraging renewable hubs. Social safety nets like wage subsidies and portable benefits are vital. A national Just Transition Fund, funded by redirected subsidies, can drive change. Stakeholder engagement ensures inclusive governance. By blending global best practices with local realities, Türkiye can become a model for emerging economies, balancing climate action with labor equity and regional resilience
Keywords : Just Transition, employment impacts, input-output analysis, coal phase-out, Türkiye
